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August 14, 2004
Forces of nature ...
As a chemistry tutor colleague is fond of reminding us, if the Oxygen levels of our atmosphere were just 4% higher, the planet would self-combust. The universe, he reminds us, is radioactive, and we are all being bombarded by radiation all the time. Life is a dangerous enterprise; nature is not soft, caring, and cuddly - it's pretty much ineffable and does as it likes.
There used to be comic books in the 1950's and 1960's (OK, so now I've effectively dated myself!) which predicted "climate control" and weather control - all from satellites circling the planet and providing us with perfect weather and climatic conditions in our cities all the time. They believed then that science would soon be able to do this. Well, as soon as people started trying to do it - refer back to the efforts to control rainfall or make rain using silver nitrate "salting" of clouds and other "interesting" experiments in that field - and you have the beginnings of the science that now at least tells us that we don't really even begin to understand what forces are at work in creating the weather we are subject too.
The forces unleashed in a tropical thunderstorm are awesome; those in a hurricane, cyclone, or typhoon are almost beyond comprehension of anyone not into the science and study of these phenomena. Having actually experienced, in the course of my very varied career, several cyclones and one super typhoon, I can say that even there, the difference is something you find hard to put into ordinary words! When you see a huge container crane - over 150 feet from wheel trucks to the boom carrying the lifting gear - propelled along its trackway in defiance of its brakes, and tipped off the end of the quay by wind forces acting on it, you begin to appreciate the difference between a tropical storm and a cyclone! When you get right down to it, once the atmosphere starts to generate one of these storms, there isn't a lot we humans can do except take shelter and hope for the best.
Even here in the UK we have our moments. In the last week we have endured torrential downpours as the dying remnants of a Huricane which missed the US had its deaththroes over this small island. Some will recall the 1987 hurricane that arrived unannounced overnight and which our weather forecasters are still trying to live down. The lightning was spectacular and the rain a torrent, but we were fortunate not to have the full force of what must have been quite a storm.
Look at the forces stacked against you - lightning running at millions of volts and amperes, wind running at speeds which generate pressure waves, and vortices which can blast out windows, rip off roofs, and overturn vehicles, rain falling as a deluge which can overwhelm drains and by sheer weight collapse roof structures. Then add the effect of such forces acting on the surface of the sea. Not only do you get huge waves generated - particularly in the shelving waters around a coast, but it tends to pile up in a great "lump", or "bow wave" on the leading edge of the storm, and this can cause flooding and devastation all on its own even if the rest of any given structure or infrastructure survives intact. No wonder our forefathers called these storms "an act of God".
Personally I do not believe that God is deliberately doing this to us; to a very large extent it is our own doing that puts us in the way of danger from these natural events.
Watching the television pictures on CNN and Fox News channels I am frankly amazed, and it says a great deal about the forward planning of our American friends, that the death toll is as low as it is. The damage this storm has done is immense, and I am also aware that a number of bloggers are caught up in it. It says a lot about their resilience and response to the emergency that they are taking it calmly and constructively and working together to restore normality as swiftly as they can. Spare a thought and a prayer for those caught up in this, and for their safety. One friend who is right in the thick of it is Kathy Kinsley of On the Third Hand. Her area is currently almost totally without power, computer, clean water, and telephones - even the mobile phone system is down due to damage to masts - but I hear "at third hand", appropriately, that she is fine and just getting on with fixing what she can and waiting for others to fix what she can't.
Personally, I am glad we live in an area where these storms are rare. For now, please keep those injured, killed, threatenmed, or whose lives have been affected by Hurricane Charley in your prayers. The days ahead will be difficult; there are other storms building in that area which may decide to come their way. That is the chance you take living in the tropics. Looking at Charley's route, there were a number of strange changes in direction, and it seems this storm, now working its way up the coast, is still swinging left and right on apparent whim. I am sure that some at least of the climatologists and weather experts will be able to explain at least some of that, and it will be interesting to hear what they suggest. For me, it is simply evidence that we are a long, long way from being able to predict these things accurately - never mind control them.
Posted by The Gray Monk at August 14, 2004 08:06 PM