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June 02, 2004
Terror strikes home
We should all be very alarmed by the attacks on the Saudi Arabian oil terminal, and on the expatriat compounds. This is not random, and it is certainly not unco-ordinated; this is the real war in the Middle East and it is one which we all stand to lose.
Why? Simply because the West is much more dependent upon the oil from this nasty little Kingdom than we like to think, and which has, for years, supported one of the most radical forms of Islam - Wahabi-ism - and a truly repressive form of government. At the same time they have kept the oil taps open and flowing to the West, trading political support for their regime for the oil they hold. This country holds probably a good third of all the oil reserves, yet is also one of the least open societies in the world. It is that which will become even more closed if al Qaeda succeeds in overthrowing the present Rulers and substituting their approved Ayatollahs as the new government. And it is probably much more likely to happen than we think!
First thing that will happen is that the oil tap will be closed. Those who wish to overthrow the House of Saud want to replace them with a fundamentalist state which seeks to espouse and impose a simplistic lifestyle. They have no need of the oil revenues and therefore have no fears about shutting it off to all but domestic consumption. We are not talking commonsense here - we are talking ideology and fanatical theology - always a very bad combination.
Saudi Arabia is a powder keg. It has been one for a long time. Only the control exerted by the Religious Police and the Saudi secret police has kept the fuse from igniting thus far. This latest assault - which is very likely to escalate rapidly - may be sufficient to tip the balance against the regime. If it does we are all in deep water.
This is where the real battle is at the moment - Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Iran and Pakistan are all sideshows. He who controls Saudi Arabia's oil fields effectively will control the world. Ironic isn't it that it is our need of the oil that has propped up the House of Saud for this long - and it is our need of this oil that will bring us to do deals with the fanatics in the long term.
A neat dicotomy. As the Arabic saying goes "The enemy of my enemy is my friend and the friend of my enemy is my enemy."
I guess we all know where we stand in that analysis.
Posted by The Gray Monk at June 2, 2004 08:17 AM