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February 19, 2004

The future of humanity?

bs galactica.bmp

A friend sent me the image I have uploaded, knowing that I was a huge fan of the first show when it aired and I am still a fan of all sci-fi of this genre. But it also prompted a thought train ...

Recently I have been reading a number of scientific journals which make it pretty clear that something is happening to our planet and we don't really know what or why. You could take the usual Green Party line and blame it all on the Industrial nations, or you could argue that its all down to the destruction of rain forests, increasing desertification and so on. It doesn't solve the fundamental dilemma. In a few generations we could be facing extinction on this planet as the climate changes drastically. Now I am not normally given to flights of this sort, but there are some serious concerns here and they are far more complex than the media, the Greens and some of the tunnel vision scientis would have us believe.

Our planet is currently a blue/green world which enjoys a temperate atmosphere and a huge reserve of water, but it was not always thus, and will not always be thus.

Currently we are seeing an accelerating rate of climate change around the world. The polar ice caps are in retreat and the oceans are warming. Winters are now milder than ever in recorded history and we don’t really know why it is happening – nor could we stop it if we did know. Remember the comic books of the 60’s? The ones that had imaginative pictures of future cities enclosed in huge glass domes, climate controlled weather? Well, I guess that its unlikely we’ll see anything controlling the weather, and the domed cities are probably not viable either. But, we will need to find a way to live in a planet that is seemingly heading into one of its less friendly climatic changes.

This is not the first time it’s happened either. The evidence is there for those who are open to scientific debate, that the planet has more than once gone through a prolonged “warm” phase in which the deserts covered most of the exposed surface, vegetation was decimated and animal life reduced to a struggle for the survival of the fittest. In between it has been covered in ice and been even drier because, as those who have seen pictures of the barren Antarctic plateau will know, if you want real dry, freeze it!

We are currently bombarded with information, both of the reliable type and of the totally unproven sort, that “global warming” is either a natural phenomenon or the result of industrial activity. It probably isn’t both, and it is doubtful that we have the ability to do more than interfere on a micro-level. Even the famous CFC “Ozone hole” seems to be related to solar activity, although the banning of CFC’s does seem to have had some impact. The fact is that the Ozone hole has occurred before and the fossil records and other indicators show this. In fact, unless some of our ice-age forebears were playing around with CFC’s there is a strong case for saying that something else is also at work.

The one positive thing that has come out of all the scare mongering by researchers seeking funding, “pro-world” bodies attracting members and funding and the lunatic fringe seeking a return to a supposedly peaceful and beautiful “simplicity” state, is that we are learning a great deal about just how fragile our existence is. Let’s face it, this planet is as it is and able to support the life it does, only because it occupies a very critical position in the orbit around the sun. That and the stability it gets from having a moon the size of the one we have. Another couple of million miles further away from the sun and the oceans freeze, the atmosphere dries out and all life comes to an end. A few million the other way and we’re way to warm to support life or keep the oceans liquid. At present we are in a narrow “optimum” range from the sun, but two things seem to be happening to change this. The sun is apparently getting hotter and our orbit is a bit variable.

In short, we could wind up – in a couple of million years or so (or maybe a couple of hundred thousand) – looking like Venus. We don’t really have a handle on the time-scales for this either. All we do know is that it has happened in the distant past, and it appears to have happened quite suddenly.

All of which puts a different spin on the whole thing about the exploration of space. The International Space Station is a start, but we will need to build something a lot bigger and a lot more sophisticated if we are to “save mankind” from itself and from whatever natural exterminator is creeping up on us. Every Dollar, Pound, Euro, Yen or Yuen spent on developing a workable space platform and on workable vehicles for the exploration of deep space will one day prove to be of critical value – and probably pay its providers a dividend way beyond any current set of values.

The only thing I wonder about at this juncture is who will have the nerve to face down the whining, whinging lobbies who feel that its all a huge waste of money which should be better spent on programmes to return us all to eco-friendly mud huts and organic farming. Yes, we need to save the planet, but we also need a lifeboat. With six billion people and rising, it will need to be a pretty big one or a large fleet of them. Either that or accept that only the bold nation which pursues this “dream” will one day be the human gene type that passes from this solar system to a new one.

Back in 1979 when the first airing of Battlestar Galactica was hitting the screens, many scoffed at the concept. I suggest that we better start taking a look at how we make it happen, it could be the lifeboat we need

The NASA Shuttles moved us a step nearer being able to build the Battlestar, but then we lost momentum. I suggest that it is time to move forward again. In the process we will learn a lot, we will have a few more tragedies and we will get a lot wrong, but the ultimate prize will be worth the sacrifice. We are creatures of mortality, and we are creatures who thrive in endeavour.

As the Star Trek fans will know, we need to “Boldly go, where no man has gone before” if we, as a species are to continue in the evolutionary process I believe we have been put here to complete.

I wish I could live to see it.

Posted by The Gray Monk at February 19, 2004 11:14 PM